AnalystClass
Dictionary

Yield to maturity

Capital Markets

The return an investor earns buying a bond at today's price and holding it to maturity, counting coupons and the pull back to par.

Also written: YTM, redemption yield, promised yield

A bond carries two rates and they answer different questions. The coupon is what the issuer agreed to pay on the day the bond was sold, fixed for life as a percentage of face value. The yield to maturity is the internal rate of return of buying at today's market price, collecting every remaining coupon and receiving 100 at maturity. The first is a record of the past. The second is what the market charges this borrower now, which is why only the second belongs in a cost of debt.

Because the coupon cannot move, the price does all the adjusting, and that is the whole reason price and yield run in opposite directions. A bond bought below par earns its coupon plus the gain back to 100, so its yield sits above the coupon. A bond bought above par earns its coupon less the fall back to 100, so its yield sits below it. The difference between the two is the pull to par, spread across the remaining life.

Sitting between them is the current yield, coupon divided by price, which counts the income and ignores the pull to par entirely. It is a fair income measure for a holder and a poor measure of return, and mistaking one for the other is a common way to misread a discount bond.

Two limits are worth carrying. The calculation assumes the bond runs to maturity, which is not the investor's decision on callable paper, so the number to underwrite there is the yield to worst. And it is a promised yield rather than an expected one, because it assumes every payment arrives in full. On a bond trading at a deep discount precisely because the market doubts repayment, the promised yield can be twenty per cent or more while no lender expects to earn it, which is why feeding a distressed yield into a WACC as the cost of debt overstates the rate badly.

Worked example

Illustrative. A five year senior bond with a 5% coupon trades at 92. Its current yield is 5 over 92, or 5.43%, and its yield to maturity is about 6.95%, because the buyer also picks up 8 points of price over five years.

The same issuer's five year bond with a 9% coupon trades at 107. Its current yield is 8.41% and its yield to maturity about 7.28%.

Coupons four points apart, current yields three points apart, and two yields within about a third of a point of each other. They are the same credit at the same maturity, which is what the yield tells you and the coupon never could. The small gap that remains is what the market takes off the second bond for a call the issuer holds.

Taught in context in DCF II: Forecasting the BusinessSee the three modules that are free to read

Related