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Inflation only floor

DCF

The growth rate of a business with no real growth at all, which simply passes through price.

A business holding volume flat and only raising prices with inflation grows at inflation and no more. That is the lower bound of the ordinary range, and plenty of mature businesses genuinely belong there.

It is the right assumption for a company in a structurally flat market with no pricing power beyond inflation pass through, and for any business where volume growth would require investment the forecast does not contain.

Below it is legitimate too. A structurally declining business, a physical media distributor or a business facing substitution, can carry a negative growth rate, which is perfectly valid arithmetic and produces a smaller but entirely coherent terminal value.

Together with the macro anchor it brackets the answer: roughly inflation at the bottom, nominal GDP at the top, and the argument is about where inside that band this specific business sits.

Worked example

A mature business holding volume flat and passing through 2% inflation grows at 2%, and no more.

That is the lower end of the ordinary range. A structurally declining business can legitimately carry negative growth, which produces a smaller but perfectly coherent terminal value.

Together with the macro anchor this brackets the answer: roughly 2% at the bottom and roughly 3.2% at the top for euro cash flows, with the argument about where inside that band the business sits.

Taught in context in DCF III: Terminal Value and Sanity ChecksSee the three modules that are free to read

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